14 June 2011
Whose game is ready for the US Open this year? We’d like to get your top five picks and your winner. Feel free to Post your picks as a comment below this post. Based on what we have seen during the first half of 2011, here is Ozzie’s analysis of the field at Congressional:
Thursday’s Pairings and Tee Times
No. 1
7:00 Daehyun Kim, Chez Reavie, Shane Lowry,
7:11 Greg Chalmers, Kirk Triplett, Brad Adamonis
7:22 Marc Leishman, Alex Cejka, Kevin Streelman
7:33 Fred Funk, David Chung (A), Michael Campbell
7:44 Matt Kuchar, Paul Casey, K.J. Choi
7:55 Graeme McDowell, Peter Uihlein (A), Louis Oosthuizen
8:06 Henrik Stenson, Johan Edfors, Fredrik Jacobson
8:17 Ernie Els, Davis Love III, Jim Furyk
8:28 Justin Rose, J.J. Henry, Jason Day
8:39 Jeff Overton, Ryan Palmer, Gary Woodland
8:50 Brandt Jobe, Nick O’Hern, D.A. Points
9:01 Christo Greyling, Adam Hadwin, Joey Lamielle
9:12 Michael Tobiason Jr., Jesse Hutchins, Michael Smith
12:40 Ty Tryon, Maarten Lafeber, Scott Barr
12:51 Geoffrey Sisk, Cheng-Tsung Pan (A), Matt Richardson
1:02 Bo Van Pelt, Kyung-Tae Kim, Ben Crane
1:13 Mark Wilson, Martin Laird, Peter Hanson
1:24 Miguel Angel Jimenez, Sergio Garcia, Alvaro Quiros
1:35 Francesco Molinari, Matteo Manassero, Edoardo Molinari
1:46 Hiroyuki Fujita, Todd Hamilton, Kevin Na
1:57 Rickie Fowler, Ian Poulter, Hunter Mahan
2:08 Camilo Villegas, Aaron Baddeley, Brandt Snedeker
2:19 Kevin Chappell, Dohoon Kim, Robert Rock
2:30 Jon Mills, Andreas Harto, Scott Pinckney (A)
2:41 Steven Irwin (A), Ryan Nelson, Elliot Gealy
2:52 Christopher Deforest, Chris Williams (A), Wes Heffernan
No. 10
7:00 Chad Campbell, Harrison Frazar, Marc Turnesa
7:11 Justin Hicks, Marcel Siem, Sunghoon Kang
7:22 Thomas Levet, Brian Gay, Gregory Havret
7:33 Heath Slocum, Russell Henley (A), Nicolas Colsaerts
7:44 Padraig Harrington, Angel Cabrera, Stewart Cink
7:55 Ryo Ishikawa, Anthony Kim, Y.E. Yang
8:06 Luke Donald, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer
8:17 Jonathan Byrd, Bill Haas, Webb Simpson
8:28 Bubba Watson, Adam Scott, Robert Karlsson
8:39 Sam Saunders, Tim Petrovic, Scott Piercy
8:50 Matthew Edwards, Brad Benjamin (A), Zack Byrd
9:01 Bud Cauley, Adam Long, Michael Barbosa (A)
9:12 Michael Whitehead, Will Wilcox, John Ellis
12:40 Alexandre Rocha, Andres Gonzales, Bubba Dickerson
12:51 Michael Putnam, Patrick Cantlay (A), Robert Dinwiddie
1:02 John Senden, Robert Garrigus, Scott Hend
1:13 Jason Dufner, Stephen Gallacher, Seung Yul Noh
1:24 Steve Stricker, Retief Goosen, David Toms
1:35 Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson
1:46 Charl Schwartzel, Trevor Immelman, Zach Johnson
1:57 Nick Watney, Lucas Glover, Geoff Ogilvy
2:08 Ryan Moore, Robert Allenby, Rory Sabbatini
2:19 David Howell, Kenichi Kuboya, Briny Baird
2:30 Charley Hoffman, Alexander Noren, Sangmoon Bae
2:41 Brett Patterson (A), Bennett Blakeman, Brian Locke
2:52 Chris Wilson, David May, Beau Hossler (A)
I believe the winner will come from among the 24 players I have highlighted above. Perhaps a bit of a contrarian, I realize I have not selected anyone from the 1:35 10th tee pairing: Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson and Phil Mickelson. My reasoning: The emotionl McIlroy has yet to learn how to turn his emotional nature into a positive. Johnson has yet to develop a precision short game. Mickelson has been lining up closed to his target line all season, causing him to spray shots, including his short irons and wedges, all over the place. He also is not focusing well.
Many of your other favorites simply aren’t putting well enough to win. Several who fall into this caegory, sadly, are: Ernie Els, Jim Furyk, Sergio Garcia, Vijay Singh, Paul Casey, K.J. Choi, Y.E. Yang, Padraig Harrington, Angel Cabrera, Stewart Cink, Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Louis Oosthuizen
Now lets narrow the field by demonstrated weakness that will likely keep players out of the winners circle:
Quality of Performance Routine: Of the players I selected, the following tend to hit too many loose shots by short changing their preparation to play shots precisely: JustinRose, Rickie Fowler, Aaron Baddeley, Brandt Snedeker. This week they will likely let the lady steal too many shots from them:
Courage and Confidence: Perhaps the following, though talented enough, are not yet able to visualize themselves as the US Open Champion: Nick Watney, Ryan Palmer, Ben Crane, Mark Wilson, Gary Woodland, Bo Van Pelt, Bill Haas, Ryan Moore. It is just possible that Steve Stricker may fall into this category as well.
Key Swing Flaw: Jeff Overton tends to slide his left post well beyond the ball, which creates a timing problem; Graeme McDowell gets his club face a little shut at the top causing him to deliver the face closed at impact; Martin Laird gets a little quick in his transition from backswing to downswing, which messes up his rhythm and feel just when he needs it most; Charl Schwartzel gets too much tension in his right side to fully complete his backswing, causing him to get over the top and pull shots left or steer them to the right;
Set-Up Flaw: Luke Donald tends to get his feet set directly under his hips, i.e. too far from the ball. When he does this he gets out of balance and has to reach for the ball as he delivers, causing his armswing to separate from the spinning of his hips. Result: he misses both left and right; Geoff Ogilvy tends to get a little slouched in his set-up, which causes him to move off the ball, thus missing quality contact too often.
Putting: All my selections are good putters on fast greens with the exception of Edoardo Molinari, who can be streaky good.
Who does that leave as the best prepared in all facets of the game for Congressional? Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Matteo Manassero and Ian Poulter. I’d like to add two back into my top picks and those would be the two players with set-up flaws: Luke Donald and Geoff Ogilvy. Both have a demonstrated they can quickly fix their problem and have shown tenacity down the stretch and have matured as winners.
And the winner is: My pick for the Winners Circle at Congressional this year , which is likely a surprise to all but him, is Jason Day. My longshot pick would be the young and confident Matteo Manassero.
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